Todd Fuhrman from Vegas: Week Two
Published on: September 07, 2012 | Written by: Todd Fuhrman
Week 1 gave us some betting surprises (Houston losing outright as 36.5 pt chalk) and some games that opened our eyes with dominating performances (Oregon's first team offense, Alabama). However unlike the mass media that loves to rehash and extrapolate from one week’s results, we put the previous games to bed after a quick post mortem in the betting world. From a viewing standpoint week 2 may not offer a ton of make or break games but for the gambler, opportunity always abounds. It’s only Friday however we’ve seen a few strong line moves on a couple marquee games.
Virginia Opened -7 now sits -10
UNC opened -6.5 now sits -11
UGA opened -3 now sits -2
Florida -1 now sits Texas A&M -1
Oklahoma St opened -11, climbed as high as -13.5, now sits -10.5
Like any market report, it's important to know whose behind the buying and selling of certain commodities (in this instance, it’s college football teams). The next logical question becomes which move is worth respecting and which can be ignored. We reached out to our friend Dave Mason from www.betonline.ag to get his birdseye view on what trends he sees emerging for the weekend.
How did opening weekend go for the book? I'd imagine top ten favs going 1-7 ATS had to put the book in a very good spot compared to last year's chalk talk domination.
Overall we had a good start to the 2012 football season. Thursday was a winner thanks to Vanderbilt and Friday was a winner with Boise. Saturday was a decent day but Sunday the public got a lot of their money back; well until Monday when GT made us very happy with their dog cover.
What are you seeing through early NFL and College betting this week? There were substantial moves Tuesday on Arizona, Mizzou, and SDSU: safe to say they were all from the pros?
For Sunday’s games the sharp money is on Tennessee (currently +5 was +6.5), Skins (currently +7 was +9.5), Texans (currently -12.5 was -9.5), and the Raiders Mondays night (currently -1 was +1.5).
In college there was some sharp stuff on Zona. UConn (was +6, now +5), and it's been more a public move on the Aztecs than anything else.
As Dave indicates, sharp bettors took pretty strong stances on a few underdogs in the NFL. I find the Titans move a bit curious knowing that the pros probably could have grabbed +7 if the public kept betting New England at a 90% clip. Personally I think the Raiders are the right side since I made the price -2.5. As for the move on the Redskins, wish I had an explanation that’s for damn sure.
Which games are drawing the most balanced action compared to those attracting purely one-sided attention?
College Even action: Nebraska-UCLA, NC State-UConn
College lopsided: Ohio State -18 over Central Florida (87% of $ on Buckeyes); Virginia -10 over Penn State (88% of $ on Cavs). We opened PSU +7 and everyone pounded the game. We’re starting to get the feeling all of us at BOL will be huge Nittany Lions fans all year.
NFL even action: Steelers-Broncos and Ravens-Bengals. I can see Steelers-Broncos remaining even, but I’m confident we’ll need the Bengals big by Monday night.
NFL lopsided: 85% of the money is on Texans and 80% of the money is on the Patriots.
For those just learning to understand football betting, spend a week picking games for fun to test your merits. Remember every point spread tells a story and line moves are usually an even better indicator of how the game will play out. As we keep working to raise that gambling IQ rest assured over the next 3 months you’ll know more about the industry than you ever imagined.
Weekend’s Best Bets: College: Army +6.5 and Vanderbilt -3. NFL: Tampa +2.5 and Oakland -1.